• Nozomi Hayashida

Is an invasion of Taiwan possible?

Recently, there has been international tension over the possibility that China will invade Taiwan because of the start of the invasion of Ukraine from Russia and there is possibility to invade Taiwan at the same time. This complicated relationship comes from the fact that the Chinese people and government believe that Taiwan is part of China, but Taiwan’s people believe that Taiwan is an independent country.


Check out below some unexpected information about Taiwan’s future!


Taiwan people guesses their future

The TVBS (Taiwanese Commercial Television Broadcasting Company) carried out public opinion polls to Taiwanese people. The question was “Do you think Mainland China will use this opportunity (invasion of Ukraine) to invade Taiwan?”. 57% of people answered “I'm not anxious about it”, while 37% of people answered “I’m very anxious about it”.


This result means that the number of people who are not anxious is significantly bigger .

Taiwan's government experts explained and announced there are three reasons why some people believe that China will not invade Taiwan.


  1. The Taiwanese think that it will be difficult for the Chinese to cross the strait that separates the two territories and invade Taiwan.

  2. Despite the political conflict, 50% of Taiwan's trade with China.

  3. The Taiwanese and Chinese movement is constant and very significant and the number of marriages between both countries is also increasing.



What's the conclusion, then?

China might not invade Taiwan in the present, because of the Autumn Communist Party Congress.

Nowadays, China is going near the season for the Autumn Communist Party Congress. President Xi Jinping aims for a third term as president, and for this reason he might need to keep his track record positive as elections are coming up. If Xi Jinping orders China to invade Taiwan, there are several risks: it could scorch Taiwan and cause a lot of casualties among the 23 million Taiwanese people, and will damage the relationship between Taiwan and China for so many years that it will probably be difficult to govern after.


However, one must not let one's guard down. China’s ship is currently transiting the nearby Taiwan ocean frequently. The situation is such that an invasion could happen at any time. Nonetheless, the world hopes that the situation will end peacefully without China invading Taiwan.



Resources:

https://www.businessinsider.jp/post-252436

https://www.nishinippon.co.jp/item/n/906843/


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