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  • Writer's pictureLuiza Ribeiro

Oscar Snubs and Predictions

This year's Oscar nominees were announced February 8th and the award ceremony will take place March 27th. There were several surprises and snubs, and people are already beginning to make their predictions about who will win. It is, theoretically, the most prestigious award for cinematography and actors of the year. The Academy Award acknowledges: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actress, Best Original Screenplay, Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Animated Feature, Best Production Design, Best Cinematography, Best Costume Design, Best Film Editing, Best Makeup and Hairstyling, Best Sound, Best Visual Effects, Best Original Score, Best Original Song, Best Documentary Feature, Best International Feature, Best Animated Short, Best Documentary Short, and finally, Best Live-action Short. In this article, however, I will only focus on the lead actors and actresses, picture, animated feature and visual effects. But first, let's recognize some of the people and movies that were not recognized from the Academy, and should've (in my opinion!) received at least one nomination in that certain category.

Oscar Snubs

Dennis Villeneuve - Best Director for Dune

Dune was one of the most successful movies of the night, being the second most recognized picture from the Academy (only after The Power of The Dog). Its director, Denis Villeneuve also got a best director recognition in other prestigious awards like the Critic's Choice Awards and the Satellite Awards. Not only this but Dune was nominated for Best Picture, which is an almost guarantee for directors to be nominated - but apparently not for Villeneuve, unfortunately.

Lady Gaga - Best Actress for House of Gucci

This movie, for me at least, wasn't… great, which was a huge disappointment given the star-studded cast and the trailer (which made the movie look quite interesting). With that being said, I think Lady Gaga pulled an excellent performance and really captured the essence of Patrizia - the murderer of her own husband, Maurizio Gucci. It was also a surprise amongst many critics and fans since she was nominated for BAFTA, Critic's Choice, Screen Actors Guild Awards, and the Golden Globe, making her the only actress of the season to get recognition from all these awards but not make it to the final cut.

Tick, Tick… Boom! - Best Picture

Tick, Tick… Boom!, directed by Lin-Manuel Miranda, was a great film, and one of the best this year, in my and many people’s - critics and musical theater nerds - opinion. I'm not saying it was perfect or that it was one of the top contenders for winning this award, but I definitely think it should've gotten recognized in this category. A movie about Jonathan Larsson, writer of one of the biggest musicals ever, Rent, was made into a musical movie that delivered great lines, performances and cinematography. Given that this picture was nominated for other categories in the Oscars like Film editing and Actor in a Leading Role, I was quite hopeful that it would've had a shot at the most prestigious award of the night.

Now that I have ranted about some of my disappointments this year, let's talk about which movies and actors I think have the best shot to win in their respective categories, based on my opinion, film critics’ opinion, and other awards previously won.

Oscar Predictions

Best Visual Effects

Nominees (ranked from best to worst chances of winning)

  1. Dune

  2. Spider-Man: No Way Home

  3. No Time to Die

  4. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings

  5. Free Guy

Not one, but two Marvel movies where nominated in this year's Academy Award for Best Visual Effects (which isn't very common): Shang-Chi and the legend of the Ten Rings, and Spider-Man: No way Home. Two phenomenal movies in my opinion, but it is very obvious that Dune will be the one winning. It is an epic VFX production with the iconic CG sandworms that has also brought various elements from the acclaimed book to screen - it is most definitely the front-runner of this category.

Best Animated Feature

Nominees (ranked from best to worst chances of winning)

  1. Encanto

  2. The Micthel vs The Machines

  3. Flee

  4. Raya and The Last Dragon

  5. Luca

Another very obvious win in the Oscars for Best Animated Feature: Encanto. This movie has been all over the place, even it's songs like We Don't Talk About Bruno topped the Hot 100 charts (the biggest music chart in the USA) for three weeks straight (as of this moment). As for the movie itself, it has won the Golden Globe for this very category and has been nominated for Best Sound - upping the movie's chances of winning even more.

Actress in a leading role

Nominees (ranked from best to worst chances of winning)

  1. Kristen Stewart

  2. Jessica Chastain

  3. Nicole Kidman

  4. Olivia Colman

  5. Penélope Cruz

This one is probably the hardest award to predict because the other awards that act as an Oscar thermometer have been very inconsistent, to say the least. The SAG awards didn't even nominate Kristen Stewart (which I thought to be one of the top contenders for the Academy Awards). The BAFTAS didn't nominate her or Nicole Kidman either, who has won the Golden Globe. I would personally choose Jessica Chastain that acted in The Eyes of Tammy Fae, or Kristen Stewart that played in Spencer, but there are a lot of chances that Nicole Kidman could win. Despite everything I think Kristen Stewart could be the winner, followed in chances by Jessica Chastain and Nicole Kidman.

Actor in a leading role

Nominees (ranked from best to worst chances of winning)

  1. Will Smith

  2. Benedict Cumberbatch

  3. Andrew Garfield

  4. Denzel Washington

  5. Javier Bardem

This is a battle that is most likely between Will Smith and Benedict Cumberbatch (even though I would love to see Andrew Garfield winning). In the middle of last year many viewers were sure Will Smith's performance guaranteed him an award, and him winning the Golden Globes definitely helped. With that being said, Benedict is starring in the biggest movie of this year's Oscars and has been getting a lot of praise for his performance as well. As of the moment, however, I think Will Smith is the actor with the most chances of winning this year's Best Actor category.

Best Picture

Nominees (ranked from best to worst chances of winning)

  1. The Power of The Dog

  2. Dune

  3. Belfast

  4. West Side Story

  5. King Richard

  6. Licorice Pizza

  7. CODA

  8. Drive my Car

  9. Nightmare Alley

  10. Don't Look Up

Even though I found it quite tedious, The Power of The Dog definitely has the best chances of winning Best Picture in this year's Oscars. Not only has it been winning various awards in the same category, but it is definitely a critic's darling (with a 93% on Rotten Tomatoes). Not only this, but it was the movie with the most nominations this year - 12 in total - and it got all the nominations that a Best Picture winner typically gets: Editing, Director, Screenplay, and Picture. No other movie in this category got all 4.

Final Thoughts

Well, these are my Oscar snubs and prediction lists for the 2022 Academy Awards. There were a few surprises and snubs here and there, but overall I think the Oscars this year nominated some great choices that I would be happy to see winning. Now, we will have to wait about one month to see how correctly or incorrectly I predicted these awards.

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